President Trump Dumbs Down on Pedestrian Safety
By David Ward, Global NCAP, President Emeritus
“It’s not only tariffs. It’s non-monetary tariffs. Its tariffs where they put things on that make it impossible for you to sell a car. It’s not a money thing. They make it so difficult, the standards and the tests. They drop the bowling ball on the top of your car from 20 feet up in the air and if there's a little dent they say no, I'm sorry, your car doesn't qualify”.
President Donald Trump remarks in the White House 7th April 2025
No President Trump it’s not a money thing, it’s a saving lives thing. It’s why today China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom (UK) all apply pedestrian protection standards. Their passenger car regulations require softer hoods and bumpers to reduce pedestrian injuries to the head, chest, and leg if struck by a car. Characteristically President Trump’s grasp of the facts is tenuous, and he misunderstands the test. Cars fail to pass if the hood doesn’t dent, not if it does.
Trump is claiming victimhood by countries that prefer softer hoods. He’s like the proud mother at her son’s parade in the Irving Berling hit “They were all out of step but Jim”. He fails to see that reduced global market access for US cars is self-inflicted. It is the inevitable consequence of the US being out of step on pedestrian protection.
Since 2005 all passenger cars sold in the EU (and the UK) must pass pedestrian protection standards and a global United Nations regulation has been available for adoption by any country from 2008. Despite participating in this UN process, the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has failed for decades to follow all the other major car producing countries in applying pedestrian protection in their framework of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) or in their consumer New Car Assessment Programme 5 star safety ratings (US NCAP).
It wasn’t always like this. In the mid-1990s the Administration of President Bill Clinton supported closer international cooperation on vehicle standards. This led to the adoption by the UN’s World Forum for Harmonisation of Vehicle Regulations of an agreement in 1998 which made it easier to negotiate common global safety standards between the EU, Japan, the US and other vehicle producing nations. For example, in 2011 under the Republican Administration of President George W Bush, NHTSA led the development of a UN global technical regulation for the anti-skid system, electronic stability control. As a result of this harmonisation effort more than 80% of new passenger cars worldwide are now fitted with this life saving technology. An important lesson from this ESC success was the huge economies of scale that were delivered by harmonised global fitment, reducing unit costs, and making safer vehicles more affordable. This was a great example of US global regulatory leadership; now long gone.
In President Trump’s first term he axed negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership that could have achieved closer alignment of US and EU vehicle standards including for pedestrian protection. His administration also blocked the inclusion of the pedestrian protection tests in the US NCAP proposed in 2015 by the Administration of President Barack Obama. At the time NHTSA noted that pedestrian protection testing in Europe and Japan “have likely contributed to a downward trend in pedestrian fatalities” and suggested that “including pedestrian protection in the NCAP program would be a step toward realizing similar downward trends experienced in regions of the world that include pedestrians in their consumer information programs”. The agency also recognised the effectiveness of technologies such as the ‘pop up’ bonnet system which raises the distance between the hood and the hard components in the engine bay, reducing the severity of head injury to the struck pedestrian.
Ignoring NHTSA’s safety arguments, in 2018 Trump began using his ‘bowling ball’ analogy as a favourite example of so called ‘unfair’ trade practices used against the US. At a fund-raising speech in Missouri Trump claimed that Japan’s use of the test was “horrible”. Bewilderment over his weird remarks forced then White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders to explain that the President was “obviously…joking”. Unfortunately pedestrian deaths in the US are no laughing matter. Between 2013 and 2022 pedestrian fatalities have increased by 57% from 4,779 to 7,522.
This alarming trend prompted the President Joe Biden’s Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to take action. In 2023 NHTSA proposed FMVSS rule makings for head to hood impact and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Pedestrian protection testing was also planned again for inclusion in the long-delayed upgrade to the US NCAP. If these welcome catch-up initiatives are sustained, US car manufactures will at long last be able to compete on a level playing field of safety standards that are commonplace across the world’s major automotive markets. However, with Trump dumbing down again on his ‘bowling ball’ attack, there is a strong risk that NHTSA’s progress on pedestrian protection will be reversed.
In contrast the EU is moving further ahead on automotive safety. From last July all new vehicles sold in the Single Market now require a package of technologies under the General Safety Regulation (GSR) that has been specifically designed to reduce vulnerable road user casualties. These include AEB and intelligent speed assistance. The AEB mandate includes pedestrian detection and cuts pre-collision speed which is vital in reducing risk of injury. In combination with existing bonnet softening requirements AEB is expected to further improve pedestrian safety which accounts for 21% of the EU’s traffic fatalities. All these measures are already included in the European New Car Assessment Programme which is now the world’s most advanced safety rating scheme. The EU’s dynamic approach to vehicle safety has helped to improve Europe’s road safety performance. Since 2013 road deaths in the EU have declined by 16%. In the US they have increased by 25%.
With around 40,000 road deaths every year, it’s very sad that President Trump’s desire to ‘Make America Great Again’ doesn’t extend to road safety. His priority is to try to force market access for American automobiles by resorting to tariff wars and attempting to undermine established global safety standards. In my view this aggressive and disruptive strategy won’t achieve the results the President hopes for. The reasons for the relative decline in US car exports are complex. The loss of market share is partly caused by self-imposed regulatory isolation – as described above – and also policies that incentivised US manufacture to shift their production away from passenger cars (sedans) in favour of large sports utility vehicles and pickups. For many car buyers in Europe and elsewhere vehicles that are so large, fuel thirsty, and unsafe are simply undesirable.
Back in 2018 in response to his original ‘bowling ball’ remarks I wrote to President Trump urging him to adopt the UN pedestrian protection regulation, arguing that this “would help both to keep American pedestrians safer and increase the export potential of US car manufacturers”. Unsurprisingly my advice was entirely ignored. It is depressing that seven years later Trump is still repeating his misleading and confused story about pedestrian protection.
At his confirmation hearing in the US Senate in January, the new Secretary for Transportation Sean Duffy said that road safety was “close to home”, explaining that his wife had survived a car crash and that he would “prioritise safety” including for pedestrians. That is a welcome personal commitment. An early test of his sincerity will be if Secretary Duffy can persuade President Trump to accept that global standards can improve both the safety of the American people and the competitiveness of its car industry. It’s time to hit Trump’s asinine ‘bowling ball’ analogy out of play.
Note: This article is based on remarks made by David Ward at the World Traffic Safety Symposium on Thursday April 17th at the 2025 New York Auto Show – ‘Lessons from the Top: Road safety evolution, regulations, and future mobility discussions from some of the world’s top safety experts’.
YOUTUBE
